After seven years of fighting, Bush´s administration is still far from declaring victory in any of its two fronts in the War on Terror. In fact, its faulty strategy has changed the war from "War on Terror" to something that may be best described as "War for Terror".

The US State Department and the National Counterterrorism Center published a comparative statistics about terrorist attacks from 2001 to 2007 – Muqtedar Khan, Neverending War on Terror, Al-Ahram Weekly, 11 – 17 / 9 / 2008.

During the year, 2001 there was 531 terrorist attacks, but the number skyrocketed to 14,499 operations. The death toll was 22,666 in 2007 compared to 3,295 in 2001. The year 2002 witnessed a sharp decrease in terrorist attacks, 199 and the death toll 725. After invasion of Iraq, the terrorist attacks accounted for 651 and the death toll reached 1907, during 2004. The American Administration and its Military Commandship should have noticed that their invasion of Iraq just provided another front for Al-Qaeda.

Are there hidden secrets about 11 / 9? In a recent opinion poll 42% of Egyptians, think that the perpetuator is Israel. Only 56% of British citizens think that Al-Qaeda is the perpetuator. I am not a conspiracy theory advocate but data points to the difficult technicality for Al-Qaeda to do it. Surfing the internet points to that also. Some web sites tell about Israelis on the roof of a near building chanting, dancing and raising the Israeli flag while the planes were colliding into the World Trade Center in New York. Other more sophisticated sites tell that the planes hit the WTC in its weakest point between its upper one third and its lower two thirds. If this were true then it would be impossible for a pilot to do the turning maneuver and adjusting the direction to target the exact point. Some provided an explanation that hacking on the computer system of the planes just after taking off to let the automatic pilot take the upper hand directing the plane and maneuvering it according to the GPS system through a preprogrammed pathway. This theory means that a very powerful and advanced intelligence body had been behind the act of 9 / 11. Until now, some of the documents of 9 / 11 are secret and the US government did not publish them. When some Congresspersons accused the Saudi Arabia of being behind the worst terrorist attack in the American history, the Saudis asked the US government to provide the evidence. The American Administration just froze the subject. There is evidence of neglect by the CIA that it had known but it had not taken the proper steps.

Regardless of the conspiracy theory, Israel was the first beneficiary of what happened, the then inexperienced American President became a ploy in the hands of his Vice, the Neo-Cons acted according to a preplanned agenda to send their troops to Central Asia near oil fields and to encircle Russia. The Americans could not arrest Osama Bin Laden. Even the smallpox-contaminated letters were sent by an American scientist who was working in a biological warfare laboratory. He committed suicide last year before being investigated. The organism was very weak. This means that it was sent to spread psychological panic state not a biological terrorism operation.

The strategic fault was using the army to fight terrorism. Armies are trained to fight armies. Before sending military forces, the enemies´ positions should be known. Terrorism had multi-factorial background that should be dealt with through synchronizing steps. The NATO forces in Afghanistan angered civilians there. In a recent BBC report, Afghan people told that when these forces are attacked, they respond targeting people and terrorists together. Losing confidence and trust of locals is another grave strategic military fault. Political reconciliation and reconstruction of the infrastructure did not go in parallel to the early military success. NATO forces stationed there and the active chasing operations against Taliban forces in mountains were few. This made NATO forces in a defensive state and gave Taliban more freedom to recollect its forces and to launch attacks. A war is never won by defensive operations only.

Bush showed his inexperience as he declared victory twice. Once when his forces toppled Taliban regime then after few months he was pleading for the Congress to allocate more resources for the endless war. He did the same mistake when his forces occupied Baghdad and in less than few weeks, he found that he just opened another front for his tiring army. Now General David Petreus the Chief of Staff said that he is far from declaring victory in Iraq. He said that the conditions are improving but warned against deterioration. The American Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Admiral Michael Mullen said in a testimony in the Congress that the conditions in Iraq are still difficult and he had hopes but he cannot declare victory. The American Defence Secretary Robert Gates declared that the end stage in Iraq has started. Bush agreed to withdraw 8000 troops from Iraq and to send 5000 troops to Afghanistan. As the Americans decided to give Afghanistan priority one but they are still far from declaring victory in Iraq then either they have other arrangement for the Arab country or they will leave Iraq in an endless civil war. Will the American choose the option of a military coup in Iraq, and to support a military dictatorship there, to stabilize Iraq until they try to achieve something in Afghanistan? Time will tell.

The new NATO strategy in Afghanistan depends upon expanding the front to include the Afghani-Pakistani borders. The new Pakistani President said that he would not allow the allies to attack the tribes region in Northern West of his country. Again, the Americans will rely on the Pakistani Army to manipulate the elected president there.

Perhaps the new strategy is not better than the old one. Expanding the front needs more troops and much offensive attacks. The repercussion will be more civilian casualties and more trouble for the weak Pakistani government. The population in Afghanistan is 35 millions and in Pakistan is about 200 millions. Extending the war to Pakistan is too dangerous for all Central Asia. Yet, the Neo Cons want creative chaos to be in all countries of the New Middle East and everywhere. While not achieving much in two fronts they provoked Russia in Balkan. They just want the next president to be obliged to fight their battles. However, Obama and McCain have their plans about Iraq and Afghanistan. The Neo Cons did not only ruin the world but also complicated the situation for their successors.

The only hope to win the War on Terror is by holding an international conference that deals with the roots of terrorism. The Arabs may give the new American Administration a small advice. Victory in Iraq and Afghanistan passes through Jerusalem. To defeat extremists Washington should empower moderates from Morocco to India. Having many fronts will just over exhaust the already over expanded empire. The new American administration should learn a lesson from the seven-year failures, which is a superpower, might occupy a populated country soon but it is too difficult to stay in safe.

Ahmed Hany
I'm an Egyptian writer, novelist and screenplay writer. Being graduated from Faculty of Medicine and having PhD in environmental Medical Sciences I have two jobes. The first is a Chest and Environmental consultant. The second is the writing. I contribute regularily to the Egyptian Mail. In 2007, I start to contribute to the American Chronicle and its family magazines. I wish I hear from readers. Books by the writer in Arabic Language "Fi el Baskawit ya 7okomah - In biscuits , Oh government".

"Qset Harbin - A tale of two wars" Al-Hadara Publishing, 7 Abou El-Seoud Street, Cairo, Egypt.

An English Novel: A Tale of two wars (e-Book and printed)
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